Asko Korpela
EF="mailto:Asko.Korpela@kolumbus.fi">Asko.Korpela@kolumbus.fi
Economy of Finland
an econometric model
Suomi Ajka malli
Asko Korpela
EF="mailto:Asko.Korpela@kolumbus.fi">Asko.Korpela@kolumbus.fi
Asko Korpela, Helsinki School of Economics, Runeberginkatu 14-16, 00100 HELSINKI
AJKA Model Equations
Basic equilibrium o Private
consumption o Investments
o Government sector
Foreign trade o Production
and employment o Incomes
o Prices and wages
AJKA An Econometric
Macromodel for Finland
Structure of the AJKA model o Using
the AJKA model o Performance of
the AJKA model
Equations and data o AJKA
forecast
AJKA model as a short term Keynesian demand oriented equilibrium model of an entire national economy is being applied on personal computers for forecasting and policy optimization in educational context.
The structural form of the AJKA model consists of some 20 behavioural and 45 definitional equations. The model was first build at the University of Pennsylvania in 1973-74. Since 1976 forecasts as direct output of the model without deliberate post output corrections have been published regularly twice a year.
Originally the model was programmed in FORTRAN for the HP3000 mainframe computer. Since 1987 only PC versions are used. They are programmed in TurboPascal. One of the several versions is FORAJKA, which is used for forecasting. Two other versions of the model, POLAJKA in text mode and GPOLAJKA in graphics mode, are used for policy optimization with the help of a loss function. Further versions SOLAJKA and others are used for preformance checking over parametre estimation period and multiplier calculations.
The model has been found to be a well-working backbone of an intermediate course in macroeconomics, allowing to acquaint the students with the structural relationships of the national economy and the connection of basic theories and their empirical application. Recently the model has been widely used in management training.
The forecasting performance of the AJKA model is controlled by comparing the fit of the published forecasts of nine central variables with those of two main economic forecasting institutions. In four cases of twelve now available the AJKA model has given the best fit.
The main purpose of the model is to give quantitative and empirical content to the basic and intermediate macroeconomic textbook theory. Therefore the model is deliberately kept void of any refinements and sophistications, only solid traditional textbook theory is applied.
The Keynesian system of income determination is the structural kernel of the model. The labour market is joined via the labour requirements function. The determination of wages and prices is connected to the other parts of the model by the labour productivity and rate of unemployment.
The model lacks the monetary market. The main reason for this has been
the anomality of the Finnish monetary market in form of the failure of
the interest rate to function as an allocator of resources. The recent
changes in the monetary market are promising an improvement in the model
as soon as sufficient data accrues.
Q = C + I + G + X - M
C = C(D/P) I = I(Q,K,CR)
K = K1 + I
X = X(QE,XP/UC)
M = M(Q)
Endogenous
Exogenous
Q = gross domestic product G
= government consumption
C = private consumption CR
= credit advances
D = disposable income QE
= purchasing power of the World
P = level of prices XP
= Finnish export prices
I = investments UC
= Finnish unit labour cost
K = capital stock
X = exports
M = imports
The main components on the goods market are private consumption, investments,
exports and imports. Consumption is determined on the basis of the life
cycle hypothesis, real deposits being used as the proxy for future income.
Investments are explained by the flexible accelerator idea, presented by
Goodwin & Chenery. Exports, amounting to a quarter of the gross domestic
product, are found to be the primary engine of cyclical fluctuation. They
are determined by the purchasing power of the world as measured by the
gross domestic product of the OECD countries and the ratio of the export
prices and domestic unit labour cost. Imports are presented as a function
of the domestic purchasing power.
U = EK - EM
EK = EK(AW)
EM = EM(Q,K)
L = Q/EM
Endogenous Exogenous
U = unemployment AW
= population of age 15-65
EK = labour supply
EM = demand of labour
L = labour productivity
The supply of labour is considered one of the main capacity restrictions
of the model. It is determined demographicly by the age groups 15-65. Sometimes
this variable is also exogenized because of its stable nature and a well-known
structural change in the available data. The labour demand is derived from
a Cobb-Douglas type production function with partial dynamic adjustment
allowing to calculate separate short term and long term elasticities. This
part of the model allows to seek a quantitative answer to the question:
Given the empirical elasticity of substitution between labour and capital
inputs, by how much should the total output increase to keep the unemployment
on a given level?
W% = W(P%,U%,N%)
P% = P(W%,PM%,L%)
Y = Q*P
D = Y - T + R
Endogenous Exogenous
W= wage level N
= negotiated wage rate
Y = National income PM = import
prices
T = taxation
R = income transfers
This part of the model reflects to some extent a characteristic feature of the Finnish labour market: the regular wage agreements between the labour unions and the employer organizations. Wage increases are determined as a sum of negotiated wage rate and wage drift. Wage drift, in turn, is determined by an augmented Phillips curve: labour market situation augmented by inflationary expectations. Price level changes are determined by wage increases, changes in import prices and in labour productivity.
Two main applications of the AJKA model are its use in forecasting and in elementary policy optimization. In the forecasting version all 30 exogenous variables and some 15 corrective parametres are availble for the user. The policy optimization is done using a sum of weighted squared deviations from given target values of four target variables, in most versions augmented by the loss accruing from the deviations of the instruments from their starting values, over two years as the loss function to be minimized.
For data years the model is solved by Gauss-Seidel iterative method using data values as starting values and an 1 per cent maximum deviation from previous iteration as the convergency criterium as well as 30 iteration maximum limit of iterations. In all solutions at least the last data year is also solved iteratively. For forecasting years, beyond the data, the previous year solution values, are used as the starting values.
After the normal Gauss-Seidel solution over the entire solution period a level correction on the basis of last year solution values compared to the same year observed values. This proportional level correction with the coefficients of the last data year is undertaken also for all years beyond the data years.
After this level correction still another Gauss-Seidel solution is performed, but for all definitional equations only, holding the behavioural equations, those with estimated parametres, in their corrected values.
With the above criteria the number of iterations needed for a solution varies between 10 and 15. Of these 3 to 5 are used in the post-correction iterations.
A forecast is prepared twice a year for the current year and the next year. The first forecast is prepared at the beginning of the year, after the publication of the preliminary National Accounting data. This data covers about three quarters of the variables. For other variables solution values are used correspondingly. The second forecast is prepared after the publication of the final National Accounting data in August and the Government budget in September. At that point all parametres of the model are re-estimated.
The starting point for preparing a new forecast is the calculation of four trend values for the exogenous variables. Ten year and twenty-five year linear and exponentia trends are calculated and routinely the one with the best fit is chosen. If no other information is available, that value is used. For a half of the exogenous variables the trend values are replaced by the values used in the latest government forecast. Thus the AJKA forecast becomes a kind of shadow forecast for the official government forecast. Ad hoc level changes are used very sparingly, one or two. Sometimes also some endogenous variable is exogenized, because of the bad performance of the model. Most problems are caused by the investment function and the propensity of the price equations to underestimate the increase of the prices.
The forecast is distributed in form of a 12 page report to some 500
subscribers, business firms, administration, colleagues and former students,
well acquainted with the model.
In the loss function version POLAJKA the loss function comprises four target variables: real gross domestic product growth, GDP price changes, unemployment rate and balance of current account as a percentage of the GDP in current prices. Different policy constellations are contrived by changing the target values and weights applied as coefficients when adding up the squared deviations of the target variables from their target values. One of the target value constellations is the latest Ministry of Finance forecast. Different weights are used for exceeding and remaining short of the target values.
The value of the loss function is the following sum of squares:
NX 2 NY
2
L = v S S(X-X0)2 + w S S(Y-Y0)2
i=1 t=1 i=1
t=1
X = instrument value supplied by the user
X0 = initial value of the instrument
Y = target value calculated by the model
Y0 = target value of the target variable
v = weight of instrument
w = weight of the target variable
For the forecasting purposes a routine test with several alternative equations for the fit of the model over four latest data years is performed upon the re-estimation. An average percentage deviation as well as an average absolute percentage deviation for a few important variables are calculated for all combinations of various alternative equations.
Usually at least one combination out of 288 to 1572 gives an average of 0.0 per cent with one decimal place exactness. But usually the combination with the least average absolute percentage deviation is used as the basic alternative. The FORAJKA program, however, allows the user to utilize any combination of the alternative equations. In this way, actually hundreds of models are available, because 2 to 4 alternative equations for 4 to 7 variables make 32 to over 16000 combinations.
This performance check in no way automatically solves the question of which combination of the alternative equations should be used in forecasts. There are combinations which give good fit for fixed price variables, but poor fit for nominal price variables, and vice versa. The least average absolute percentage deviation version typically is a version of some deviation in fixed price variables and a larger deviation in current price variables.
Next a simple comparison of the AJKA model forecasts of the previous year autumn with two of the most authoritative forecasts, those of the Ministry of Finance (VVM) and of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy (ETLA), is presented. Comparisons are made on nine central variables: Gross domestic product, GDP prices, unemployment, current account, private consumption, investments, government consumption, exports and imports. One point is given to the best forecaster. If two or three forecasters are equidistant from the observed figure, the point is divided. Thus there are 19 x 9 = 171 points to be shared.
| 77-86 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | Sum | |
| VVM | 36.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 74.0 |
| ETLA | 31.3 | 0.8 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 51.0 |
| AJKA | 22.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 46.0 |
During the whole period, AJKA succeeded best in forecasting private consumption and investments.
AJKA Contents o Performance of the AJKA model o AJKA page begin
Beginning o AJKA contents o AJKA variables
On the next few pages the structural form of the model is given with OLSQ estimates for 1963-89 data. The model parametres are estimated once every year upon the publication of the previous year definitive National Accounting data.
QGDF = CEPF + IFAF + INVF + CEGF + XGSF - MGSF + DSAF
QGDC = QGDP * QGDF
QGFC = QGDC + RGBC - TIAC
QGFF = QGFC / QGFP
1.1 Nondurables = f(Nondurables1, DisposableIncome, RealDeposits) LifeCycle
CNSF = 10.1 + .30 CNSF1 + .47 YDPF + .17 DETC1/CEPP
t 7.1 3.3 7.0
6.9
RR = .999 DW = 1.57 SD = 1.2
1.2* Nondurables = f(Nondurables1, DisposableIncome) PermanentIncomeHypothesis
CNSF = 3.0 + .62 CNSF1 + .34 YDPF
t 1.8 4.7 3.1
RR = .996 DW = 0.86 SD = 2.0
1.3 Nondurables = f(Nondurables1, DisposableIncome, UnemploymentRate)
CNSF = 2.9 + .59 CNSF1 + .37 YDPF + .56 UNMR
t 1.9 4.8
3.6 2.1
RR = .997 DW = 1.25 SD = 1.5
1.4 Nondurables = f(DisposableIncome) SimpleKeynesianHypothesis
CNSF = 6.0 + .84 YDPF
t 2.9 64
RR = .994 DW = 0.47 SD = 2.8
CDUF = - 8.3 + .16 YDPF - .51 UNMR
t 11 27
3.8
RR = .973 DW = 1.45 SD = 1.0
CEPF = CNSF + CDUF CEPC = CEPP * CEPF
SPAC = YDPC - CEPC
IFAF = - 1.7 + .68 QGFF1 - .102 KFAF2 - .41 RBLR/QGDP
t 0.4 6.8 4.2
2.2
RR = .954 DW = 1.32 SD = 3.6
KFAF = .957 KFAF1 + IFAF
IFAC = IFAP * IFAF
IFPF = IFAF - IFGF
IFGC = IFGF * IFGP
INVC = QGDC - CEPC - CEGC - IFAC - XGSC + MGSC - DSAC
IGAC = IFAC + INVC + LNWC + DSAC
DFAC = 0.6 + 1.10 DFAC1
t 2.4 181
RR = .999 DW = 0.80 SD = 0.7
TIAC = TIAR * QGDC / 100
TDPC = TDPR * YNPC / 100
TRAR = 100 (TDPC+TIAC+TTAC+TDBC) / QGDC
CEGC = CEGF * CEGP
YNGC = TDPC + TIAC + YOGC
SGAC = YNGC - CEGC - RGBC - RGPC
2.1 Exports = f(WorldPurchasPower, FinnishCompetitiveness, Dummy-75),log
XGSF = Exp(-3.407) QGEF^1.72 (XGSP/(WSAC/QGFF))^.60
t 13
35 4.2
RR = .988 DW = 1.09 SD = .047
2.2* Exports = f(Exports1, WorldPurchasPower, FinnishCompetitiveness,
Dummy-75)
XGSF = - 33.7 + .63 XGSF1 + .61 QGEF + 11.0 XGSP/(WSAC/QGFF)
t 1.9 5.0
2.9 1.5
RR = .987 DW = 1.40 SD = 3.1
2.3 Exports = f(Exports1, WorldPurchasPower, FinnishCompetitiveness),
log
XGSF = Exp(-3.423) XGSF^1.011 QGEF^1.70 (XGSP/(WSAC/QGFF))^.70
t 9.2
.45 23
2.9
RR = .980 DW = 1.00 SD = .063
XGSC = XGSP * XGSF
3.1 Imports = f(Imports1, GrDomProduct)
MGSF = - 13.6 + .32 MGSF1 + .25 QGDF
t 3.7 2.2
4.9
RR = .984 DW = 1.12 SD = 3.5
3.2* Imports = f(GrDomProduct, FinnishCompetitiveness)
MGSF = - 0.7 + .35 QGDF - 10.4 (MGSP/(WSAC/QGFF))
t 0.1 36 2.4
RR = .984 DW = 0.95 SD = 3.4
MGSC = MGSP * MGSF
XMPR = XGSP / MGSP
FEAC = MGSC + YOWC
FYAC = XGSC + YWOC
FBAC = FYAC - FEAC
FBAR = 100 FBAC / QGDC
LNWC = - FBAC + RIWC
4.1* LabourDemand = f(GrDomPr fp, CapSto, LabourDemand1, Dummy-78) log
EMPT = 35.0 QGFF^.39 KFAF^-.29 EMPT^1.53 (DU78^.030)
t 7.9 6.9
6.4
8.3 6.6
RR = .980 DW = 1.74 SD = .008
4.2 LabourDemand = f(GrDomPr fp, CapSto, LabourDemand1) log
EMPT = 16 QGFF^.38 KFAF^-.27 EMPT1^.60
t 3.9 4.1
3.5 5.8
RR = .943 DW = 1.09 SD = .013
EMPK = 215 + .66 EMPK1 + .20 AGEW (- 61.0 DU78)
t 1.7 8.6
2.7 5.1
RR = .986 DW = 1.69 SD = 18
EMPH = EMPT - EMPS
UNMT = EMPK - EMPT
UNMR = 100 UNMT/EMPK
LPFR = 1000 QGFF/EMPT
YBAC = WSAC + OSAC
WSAC = WAAC + SOAC
OSAC = OSAC1(- 0.6 - 2.3 WARC% + 2.8 QGFF% + 3.1 QGFP%)* EMPS/EMPS1
t .22
5.9 7.1
7.8
RR = .805 DW = 1.65 SD = 4.3
OSPC = - 2.5 - .29 WARC% + 1.4 QGFF% + 1.23 QGFP%
t .86 0.9
3.6 3.3
RR = .482 DW = 2.27 SD = 4.3
YDAC = YBAC + YWFC + TIAC - RGBC
YNPC = WSAC + OSPC + RGPC
YDPC = YNPC - TDPC - RPGC
YDPF = YDPC / CEPP
SAAC = IGAC - DFAC - RIWC
5.1* GdpPrice = f(WageRate, ImportPrice, LabourProductivity) log
QGDP = .3 WARC^.86 MGSP^.079 LPFR^-.49
t 3.4 19 2.1
4.6
RR = .999 DW = .90 SD = .022
5.2 GdpPrice = f(GdpPrice1, WageRate, ImportPrice, LabourProductivity)
%
QGDP = (1.5 + .18 QGDP% + .40 WARC% + .21 MGSP% - .19 LPFR) QGDP1
t 1.2 1.9
4.2 4.9 0.9
RR = .844 DW = 1.99 SD = 1.6
QGFP = .2 WARC^.79 MGSP^.13 LPFR^-.39
t 5.9 26
5.1 5.4
RR = .999 DW = 1.33 SD = .014
CEPP = 3.2 WARC^.97 MGSP^.093 LPFR^-1.11
t 2.2 15
1.8 7.5
RR = .998 DW = .77 SD = .030
IFAP = .1 IFAP^1.019 WARC^.52 MGSP^.20
t 7.2
2.2 7.5 5.0
RR = .999 DW = .82 SD = .020
CEGP = .1 WARC^.96 LPFR^-.37
t 6.2 36 3.7
RR = .999 DW = .60 SD = .021
6.1 WageDrift = f(GdpPrice, Unemployment) AugmentedPhillipsCurve
WARC = (- 1.30 + WRNI% + .39 QGDP% + 5.0/UNMR) WARC1
t 1.3
4.6 2.9
RR = .496 DW = 1.71 SD = 1.78
6.2 WageRate = f(GdpPrice, Unemployment),log
WARC = 3.0 QGDP^1.048 LPFR^.67
t 2.3
32 6.8
RR = .999 DW = 1.04 SD = .025
6.3 WageRate = f(GdpPrice, Unemployment, LabourProductivity),log
WARC = 3.7 QGDP^1.07 UNMT^-0.022 LPFR^.65
t 2.7 31
1.6 4.3
RR = .999 DW = 1.13 SD = .024
6.4* WageRate = f(GdpPrice, NegotiatedWages, Unemployment),log
WARC = 4.2 QGDP^.80 WRNI^.34 LPFR^.54
t 2.8 4.6
1.5 4.3
RR = .999 DW = .84 SD = .041
WAAC = WARC * EMPH / 1000
WARF = WARC / CEPP
WDRR = WARC% - WRNI%
Model Contents o Variables
AJKA Equations o Private Consumption o Investments o Government Sector
Foreign Trade o Production and Employment o Incomes o Prices and Wages
AJKA page begin
5 AJKA forecast
No correction parametres are used
Forecast summary
AJKA base forecast (221111) 1996-11-17 16.25.53
Exogenous assumptions 95 96 97
3 Government consumption 1.4 1.6 0.4 CEGF%
5 Subsidies to firms -6.3 8.8 -6.5 RGBC%
10 Income transfers to private 3.3 3.9 5.4 RGPC%
23 Negotiated wage rate index 3.6 3.0 1.5 WRNI%
11 Export prices 5.0 2.2 1.5 XGSP%
13 Import prices 0.4 2.5 2.1 MGSP%
27 Gross domestic product of OECD 3.0 1.5 2.5 QGEF%
16 Indirect taxes tax rate 13.8 14.9 15.0 TIAR$
28 Direct taxes tax rate 14.0 14.4 14.6 TDPR$
Endogenous forecasts 95 96 97
19 Gross domestic product 4.2 3.4 4.4 QGDF%
37 Gross domestic product prices 2.6 3.0 1.4 QGDP%
27 Unemployment rate 18.2 18.8 16.1 UNMR$
18 Balance of current account, pct of 4.5 4.6 4.5 FBAR$
1 Private consumption expenditures 3.8 1.0 3.1 CEPF%
5 Gross fixed capital formation 7.8 9.2 10.5 IFAF%
13 Exports of goods and services 8.3 5.9 2.9 XGSF%
15 Imports of goods and services 6.3 5.2 1.7 MGSF%
Model Contents o Download programs o AJKA Begin
Complete AJKA forecast
Theories in use (Base:221111)
3.2 Nondurables = f(Nondurables1, DisposableIncome) PermanentIncomeHypothesis
13.2 Exports = f(Exports1, WorldPurchasPower, FinnishCompetitiveness, Dummy-75)
15.1 Imports = f(Imports1, FinnishGrDomPr), DemandFunction
23.1 LabourDemand = f(GrDomPr fp, CapSto, LabourDemand1, Dummy-78) log
37.1 GdpPrice = f(WageRate, ImportPrice, LabourProductivity) log
42.1 WageDrift = f(GdpPrice, Unemployment) AugmentedPhillipsCurve
Exogenous assumed values in base forecast
AJKA:221111 0.0 1996-11-17 16.25.53 95 96 97 96% 97%
1 Statistical discrepancy 13.6 15.9 18.2 16.9 14.5 DSAF
2 Labour supply 2366 2377 2387 0.5 0.4 EMPK
3 Government consumption 104.1 105.8 106.2 1.6 0.4 CEGF
4 Statistical discrepancy, value -6.5 -7.3 -8.1 12.3 11.0 DSAC
5 Subsidies to firms 14.9 16.2 15.2 8.8 -6.5 RGBC
6 Government consumption prices 121.8 135.4 150.6 11.2 11.2 YOGC
7 Government investments, prices 1.060 1.091 1.122 2.9 2.9 IFGP
8 Government investments 13.3 13.1 12.9 -1.7 -1.7 IFGF
9 Income and transfers from world -23.0 -25.4 -27.8 10.4 9.4 YWFC
10 Income transfers to private 262.1 272.3 287.0 3.9 5.4 RGPC
11 Export prices 1.187 1.213 1.231 2.2 1.5 XGSP
12 Gross fixed capital formation 80.4 87.8 97.0 9.2 10.5 IFAF
13 Import prices 1.173 1.202 1.228 2.5 2.1 MGSP
14 Inventory change 6.4 6.4 6.4 -0.2 0.0 INVF
15 Commercial bank lending rate 8.0 8.1 8.2 1.3 1.2 RBLR
16 Indirect taxes tax rate 13.8 14.9 15.0 8.0 0.7 TIAR
17 Working age population (15-64) 3412 3421 3430 0.3 0.3 AGEW
18 Self-employment 244 244 246 0.0 0.8 EMPS
19 Social security contributions 63.1 65.0 67.9 3.0 4.5 SOAC
20 Savings of firms 27.7 27.7 27.7 0.0 0.0 SBAC
21 Other expenditures abroad 44.7 47.9 51.1 7.2 6.7 YOWC
22 Other income from abroad 21.8 22.7 23.6 4.1 4.0 YWOC
23 Negotiated wage rate index 3.062 3.154 3.201 3.0 1.5 WRNI
24 Deposits of the public 302.4 320.8 340.4 6.1 6.1 DETC
25 Income transfers from private 210.5 217.4 230.9 3.3 6.2 RPGC
26 Net debt of banks to Bank of Finland 0.0 1.1 2.2 999.0 100.0 CBCC
27 Gross domestic product of OECD 184.6 187.4 192.1 1.5 2.5 QGEF
28 Direct taxes tax rate 14.0 14.4 14.6 2.9 1.4 TDPR
29 Compulsory payments of tax nature 86.5 92.2 97.9 6.6 6.2 TTAC
30 Direct taxes of firms 10.8 11.1 11.4 2.8 2.7 TDBC
AJKA:221111 0.0 1996-11-17 16.25.53 95 96 97 96% 97%
Endogenous variable base forecast
AJKA:221111 0.0 1996-11-17 16.25.53 95 96 97 96% 97%
1 Private consumption expenditures 254.1 256.6 264.6 1.0 3.1 CEPF
2 Private consumption expenditures, va 295.9 308.6 323.0 4.3 4.7 CEPC
3 Non-durable consumption 232.9 236.0 240.8 1.3 2.1 CNSF
4 Durable consumption 21.2 20.7 23.7 -2.5 14.9 CDUF
5 Gross fixed capital formation 80.4 87.8 97.0 9.2 10.5 IFAF
6 Gross fixed capital formation, value 82.6 93.2 105.4 12.8 13.1 IFAC
7 Increase in stocks, value 7.2 9.6 12.6 33.8 30.3 INVC
8 Depreciation of capital stock 87.4 89.3 93.4 2.2 4.6 DFAC
9 Capital stock 2260.5 2366.9 2403.4 4.7 1.5 KFAF
10 Direct taxes 84.1 89.6 95.8 6.6 6.8 TDPC
11 Indirect taxes 75.3 86.6 92.4 15.1 6.6 TIAC
12 Government consumption, value 119.1 125.4 127.6 5.3 1.7 CEGC
13 Exports of goods and services 174.8 185.1 190.5 5.9 2.9 XGSF
14 Exports of goods and services, value 207.5 224.6 234.6 8.2 4.5 XGSC
15 Imports of goods and services 136.5 143.6 146.0 5.2 1.7 MGSF
16 Imports of goods and services, value 160.1 172.6 179.2 7.8 3.8 MGSC
17 Balance of current account 24.5 26.8 27.9 9.3 4.0 FBAC
18 Balance of current account, pct of G 4.5 4.6 4.5 2.5 -1.8 FBAR
19 Gross domestic product 496.9 514.0 536.9 3.4 4.4 QGDF
20 Gross domestic product, value 545.7 581.5 615.8 6.6 5.9 QGDC
21 Gross domestic product fp, value 485.3 511.1 538.6 5.3 5.4 QGFC
22 Gross domestic product fp 438.4 448.5 466.1 2.3 3.9 QGFF
23 Employment 1936 1931 2002 -0.3 3.7 EMPT
24 Labour supply 2366 2377 2387 0.5 0.4 EMPK
25 Wage and salary earners 1692 1687 1756 -0.3 4.1 EMPH
26 Unemployment 430 446 385 3.7 -13.8 UNMT
27 Unemployment rate 18.2 18.8 16.1 3.2 -14.1 UNMR
28 Labour productivity 226.4 232.2 232.7 2.6 0.2 LPFR
29 Wage income 281.3 292.1 307.8 3.8 5.4 WSAC
30 Operating surplus 116.8 128.9 152.5 10.4 18.3 OSAC
31 Operation surplus, private sector 57.3 58.1 61.0 1.3 5.1 OSPC
32 Private income, value 600.7 622.5 655.9 3.6 5.4 YNPC
33 Disposable income, value 306.4 315.4 329.2 2.9 4.4 YDPC
34 Disposable income, value 263.1 262.3 270.1 -0.3 3.0 YDPF
35 Disposable income total, value 435.5 466.0 509.8 7.0 9.4 YDAC
36 Domestic factor income 398.1 421.0 460.3 5.8 9.3 YBAC
37 Gross domestic product prices 1.098 1.131 1.147 3.0 1.4 QGDP
38 Gross domestic product fc prices 1.107 1.139 1.155 2.9 1.4 QGFP
39 Private consumption prices 1.165 1.204 1.220 3.3 1.4 CEPP
40 Fixed capital formation prices 1.027 1.061 1.086 3.3 2.4 IFAP
41 Government consumption prices 1.144 1.186 1.201 3.7 1.3 CEGP
42 Wage rate 129.0 134.6 136.7 4.4 1.5 WARC
43 Wage drift 1.4 0.6 -0.9 -54.8 -242.9 WDRR
44 Wages 218.2 227.1 239.9 4.1 5.7 WAAC
45 Real wages 110.7 111.8 111.9 1.0 0.1 WARF
46 Gross tax rate 47.0 48.1 48.3 2.3 0.5 TRAR
47 Terms of trade 1.012 1.009 1.003 -0.3 -0.6 XMPR
48 Unit labour cost 0.642 0.652 0.661 1.5 1.4 ULCC
AJKA:221111 0.0 1996-11-17 16.25.53 95 96 97 96% 97%
Here you can download FORAJKA and POLAJKA applications
of the AJKA model.
o Save the program package in a temporary folder, e.g. \tmp.
o Double click ..z.exe file name. The file will be unzipped.
o Double click SetupC.bat or Setup.bat file name.
The program package will be placed ready to use in \ajk\for and
\ajk\pol folders.
At the programs the size of the package is in KB. 300KB download takes with 14400 modem c. 3 min.
ForAJKA Forecasting
with AJKA model (310Kb, 971208)
PolAJKA Policy optimization
game (274Kb, 970430)
TreGraf Text
form TRE-database viewer (201 Kb, 970319)
These are 4th generation AJKA program versions (Delphi).
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